Virginia Beach, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

718
FXUS61 KAKQ 091900
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
300 PM EDT Wed Apr 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure lingers across the area through this
morning, before sliding offshore late today and tonight.
Remaining cooler than average today, despite plenty of sunshine.
More seasonal temperatures are expected late in the week, though
an approaching system from the west will bring another chance
for showers for Thursday night into Saturday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 115 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Continued cool and dry conditions today with increasing
  clouds inland late this evening into Thursday morning.

- Patchy frost is possible tonight across portions of south
  central Virginia and the Maryland Eastern Shore.

Latest analysis depicted sfc high pressure centered over the
mid- Atlantic. High pressure slides offshore later this
afternoon, as the northern stream trough slides off the New
England coast. Resultant quasi-zonal flow aloft will promote
further drying and mainly sunny and pleasant conditions, albeit
a bit cool by mid- April standards. High temperatures range from
the upper 40s/lower 50s at the coast, to the mid- upper 50s
well inland. A light E wind is expected along the coast as the
high shifts offshore, and light out of the S to SE inland.

High pressure remains immediately offshore tonight, with winds
veering around to the E-SE. Temperatures remain chilly and below
average, but no quite as cold with lows in the upper 30s to
lower 40s. We`ll start the evening mainly clear, with increasing
clouds overnight into Wednesday morning. Increasing cloud cover
lowers confidence, however, at least patchy frost is possible
across portions of south central VA and the MD Eastern Shore
where lows of 34-36F are possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

-  Increasing clouds Thursday, with showers developing later
   Thursday afternoon and evening.

A potent shortwave trough dives into the Central Plains
Thursday with surface high pressure pushing farther offshore.
Locally, the mid-level flow becomes W-SW with a clipper system
preceding the primary trough. This weak disturbance aloft pushes
through Thursday afternoon and night, will bring a 20-40% chc
of showers to the Piedmont by afternoon, reaching the coast by
evening before (briefly) tapering off overnight. Forecast high
temperatures range from the upper 50s/around 60F over the
Delmarva and northern neck, low to mid 60s central and upper
60s/near 70F SE. Lows Thursday night in the upper 40s to low 50s
for most, mid to upper 50s SE in breezy onshore (SE) flow.

Previously referenced deep upper trough digs SE across the mid-
south into the southeast late Thu night through Saturday.
Temporal issues remain amongst deterministic models. However,
the 09/00z EPS/GEFS still depict the highest PW anomalies from
06z-18z Friday. Therefore, the highest PoPs (high-end likely to
categorical) for showers in the latest forecast are from
Thursday night (well inland) through Friday, as the upper trough
briefly closes off and lingers over the mid-Atlantic into Friday
night. While clouds and showers should limit destabilization to
a good degree, there is a slight chc of embedded thunder that
will need to be monitored for Friday, especially from south-
central VA into NE NC given developing deep-layer shear and
steepening mid-level lapse rates as the low pressure and its
attendant cold front sweep across the Carolinas Friday
afternoon and night. SPC has outlooked SE VA and NE NC for now,
which makes sense, as forcing should be maximized across the
SErn third of the area coincident with peak heating. Any severe
threat should be short-lived, with the warm sector quickly
getting scoured out by the trailing cold pool into Friday
evening.

Temperatures should generally be in the 60s ahead of the front
Friday, with Saturday looking a bit cooler in the 50s to lower
60s as clouds and moisture linger

The upper trough lingers along the coastal mid-Atlantic on
Saturday. Models continue to indicate low-level moisture and
clouds hang around through the day, which portends continued
cloud cover and scattered (mainly diurnally-driven) showers
Saturday afternoon. Highs mainly in the 50s to low 60s SE coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Rain arrives Thursday night into Saturday as another front
  moves through the forecast area.

- Temperatures will be seasonable later this weekend into early
  next week, with a warming trend developing for the middle of
  next week.

The upper trough finally scoots offshore Sunday into early next
week, with quasi-zonal mid- level flow allowing for a gradual
warmup early next week. After a cooler day in the upper 60s
Sunday, temperatures will rebound back into the mid to upper 70s
Monday under low-amplitude ridging aloft. Another northern
stream trough dives across the upper midwest into the Great
Lakes, with warming SSW flow bringing a sharp warm-up on
Tuesday. Given the timing of the slow and moisture-starved
system, Wednesday could easily be a warmer-than-normal day as
well. For that reason, will keep PoPs on the low side and stay
on the high end of the guidance envelope for temps through the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions prevail across the local terminals through the
18z taf period. Clear skies were noted across the local area
this afternoon with high pressure overhead. A mixture of stratus
and cirrus build in from W to E tonight into Thu ahead of the
next system. CIGs lower to 4000-8000 ft Thu afternoon with some
MVFR CIGs possible across the Piedmont. Additionally, scattered
light showers are possible across the Piedmont Thu. Winds were
variable around 5 kt across the local area this afternoon. Winds
become SE 10 kt by Thu afternoon.

Outlook: Flight restrictions are likely to develop later
Thu night into Fri, as showers and storms spread across the
area ahead of an approaching upper level low. The upper level
low lingers across the area through this weekend, allowing for
unsettled weather to continue. Winds could become gusty along
the coast Fri with gusts to 20-25 kt possible.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EST Wednesday...

- A period of elevated SE winds is possible Thursday night into
  Friday ahead of the next cold front with marginal SCA
  conditions possible.

- SCAs are possible later Saturday through early Sunday morning
  behind a cold front.

1027mb high pressure is centered in vicinity of the VA coast
this aftn. The wind is generally N to NE and has diminished to
5-10kt for most of the area, and 10-15kt for the northern Outer
Banks. Seas range from 2-3ft N, to ~4ft to occasionally 5ft off
of the Currituck Outer Banks. Waves in the Ches. Bay are
approximately 2-3ft at the mouth of the Bay to 1-2ft elsewhere.
High pressure moves offshore tonight into Thursday with the wind
becoming SE 10- 15kt. Seas will primarily be 2-3ft tonight into
Thursday, with waves in the Ches. Bay building from 1-2ft
tonight to 2-3ft Thursday. The wind becomes easterly Thursday
night into Friday ahead of low pressure approaching from the SW.
Marginal SCA conditions are possible with respect to wind in
the Ches. Bay and lower James River, but there is still some
uncertainty in the exact evolution of this system. There is more
confidence with regard to seas building to 4-6ft Friday N of
Parramore Is. with onshore flow. Low pressure and the associated
cold front lift NE across the coast Friday night into Saturday
morning, with CAA developing later Saturday into Saturday night
with SCA conditions possible in a NW wind. Additionally, seas
likely remain elevated Friday night into Saturday. High pressure
builds in from the W Sunday and passes across the region
Monday. Another cold front potentially moves across the coast by
Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A River Flood Warning remains in effect for the Meherrin River
at Lawrenceville. We continue to monitor the Nottoway River at
Stony Creek and Sebrell, which are forecast to approach flood
stage tonight/early Thursday (Stony Creek) and later Friday
into Saturday (Sebrell). See water.noaa.gov for more site-
specific information. The gauge at Lawrenceville crested just
after 3am this morning and the water level is presently
falling. That warning may therefore be dropped later this
morning.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/RMM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...AJZ/MAM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJZ
HYDROLOGY...